Research Note 00

Can You Trade Crypto Profitably by Formula?

Introduces the series and its method. An audit of roughly 200 pre-built trading strategies on a marketplace (a "CMC Skill Hub") found that most rest on the same public metrics anyone can compute for free. Klines, an event-driven Binance volume-spike detector built beforehand, showed that detecting an abnormal move is easier than knowing whether it continues. That is the fork that leads into this series. Four independent hypothesis classes, momentum, trend, funding carry, and reversal, are then run through one fixed protocol: literature review, mechanism reconstruction, replication on Binance data, gross result, net-of-costs, and a significance test. Grid bots are treated separately as an execution-economics question. A hard rule: at most two independently published implementations are tested per class; if both fail, the class is closed.

This page preserves the approved research abstract in full. The working repository contains the complete note, methodology, code, data, and references.