KarapticLive monitor / BTC
Six public indicators, shown with their method and limitation. Four describe market state; two show how the options market prices risk over the next 30 days. None predicts the next move.
Long-term trend
—Price relative to the 200-day moving average.
Method. Current BTCUSDT spot price compared with the average of the last 200 completed daily closes.
What it does not say. Trading above the average does not guarantee continuation; falling below it does not identify a bottom.
Pi Cycle distance
—Distance between the 111DMA and twice the 350DMA.
Method. The 111-day moving average is compared with 2 × the 350-day moving average, using completed BTCUSDT daily closes.
What it does not say. A narrowing gap is not a sell signal. The historical crossover is a descriptive market-cycle heuristic, not a causal rule.
Drawdown from high
—Current price relative to the highest available daily close.
Method. Current BTC spot price versus the highest completed daily close in the available source history. The primary source is Binance; Coinbase and Kraken provide bounded-history fallbacks.
What it does not say. Drawdown measures distance, not valuation. A large drawdown is not evidence that price is cheap or about to recover.
Leverage conditions
—Perpetual funding and 24-hour open-interest change.
Method. Latest BTC perpetual funding and, when Binance is available, the change in open interest over approximately 24 hours. Deribit supplies a current funding and OI snapshot as fallback. OI within ±1% is labelled broadly flat.
What it does not say. Funding and open interest show positioning pressure, not trader direction, liquidation levels, or the timing of a reversal.
Options-implied range
—Approximate one-standard-deviation range priced over the next 30 days.
Method. DVOL is Deribit's own 30-day annualized implied-volatility index. The approximate range is F × e±σ√T, centred on a 30-day option forward interpolated from the surrounding expiries.
What it does not say. This is a simplified risk-neutral range, not a real-world 68% probability interval or a price target. It describes the size of risk being priced, not direction.
IV–RV spread
—Forward-looking DVOL compared with volatility realized over the preceding 30 days.
Method. Current 30-day DVOL minus annualized realized volatility from the latest 30 daily log returns, using completed BTC closes. It compares a forward-looking option price with a backward-looking observation.
What it does not say. This spread is a proxy for the volatility risk premium, not its realized value or a signal to sell volatility. Implied volatility may exceed realized volatility on average, but not in every period.
How to read it
A useful monitor should make its assumptions visible. Each card therefore separates the observed value from the interpretation and from what the metric cannot establish.
The figures come from public exchange market-data endpoints and may be delayed or temporarily unavailable. Karaptic's server caches results for five minutes. Deribit supplies DVOL and the option forwards; Binance supplies the primary spot, funding, OI, and close history, with bounded public fallbacks where stated. No account data or API key is used.
The options cards are the only measures here priced directly from an options market where risk over a stated horizon is traded. The 25Δ risk reversal will be added only after a consistent 12-month historical reference range has been calculated.